Republican voters would overwhelmingly choose Donald Trump over Joe Biden, even if Trump is convicted of the numerous high-profile crimes he has been charged with, according to the January 2024 Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll.
The poll asked voters to consider the effects of three hypothetical convictions in his various cases on their vote. These include Trump’s alleged mishandling of classified documents, his alleged attempts to alter and influence the 2020 election result in Georgia illegally, and his alleged incitement of the January 6, 2021, riots at the U.S. Capitol.
Assuming a conviction on the classified documents case, Trump would win a popular vote, head-to-head matchup with President Biden (53% to 47%). Of Republican voters, 91% would still vote for Trump in the case of a conviction. Notably, 16% of self-identified Democrats would also choose Trump over Biden if this were to occur.
In the Georgia case, Trump would lose a few more voters with a conviction but still prevail in the popular vote with 51% to Biden’s 49%. Given a conviction in this case, 84% of Republicans and 18% of Democrats would choose Trump over Biden.
A conviction in the January 6 trial is the only scenario in which Biden would prevail in a popular vote matchup with Trump, with 52% of voters choosing Biden and 48% Trump. Eighty- nine percent of Republicans would vote for Trump, given a conviction in this case.
It is important to note that the survey only measured head-to-head matchups between Trump. Given Electoral College considerations, it does not predict the election outcome. It only predicts what the popular vote would be.
Results on this and other questions from the Harvard CAPS-Harris poll can be found here.
Senior Editor at Good Faith Media.
