Global food insecurity is expected to decline by 336 million people over the next decade, according to the International Food Security Assessment report released in late June by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service.

A decline in food prices and an increase in incomes are key factors influencing the report’s projection of a 10.8 percent decrease in the percentage of the world population facing food insecurity.

Even with this decline, 446 million people are expected to be food insecure in 2028.

“The ERS International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model projects per capita food demand and evaluates that against a caloric target of roughly 2,100 calories per person per day to determine whether populations in 76 low- and middle-income countries (historic food aid recipients) should be considered food secure,” the report explained.

Asia should experience the highest percent decline in food insecurity from 2018 to 2028, moving from 16.6 percent to 4.7, followed closely by Sub-Saharan Africa (declining 11.3 percent to 24 percent).

A 10 percent decline (to 9.5 percent) is projected for Latin America and the Caribbean, while North Africa should experience a 2 percent drop (to 4.9 percent).

Conflict is a key driver of food insecurity by “weakening the ability of local farmers to produce; disrupting transportation, marketing and supply chains; and creating displaced populations within conflict countries, as well as refugee flows from conflict countries to neighboring states.”

The full report is available here.

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