Results from the recently released Baylor Religion Survey suggest that religious belief and 2024 voting patterns are strong indicators of one’s likelihood to believe in conspiracy theories. Conducted in partnership with Gallup, the study measured belief in four prominent conspiracies: that the COVID-19 pandemic was a government tracking program, that climate change is a hoax, that Democrats are trying to replace white people with immigrants and people of color, and that Democrats are involved in “elite sex-trafficking rings.”
For each of these, being religious and being a Trump voter doubled (at a minimum) respondents’ chances of believing the conspiracy.
More than a quarter (28%) of survey participants agreed that “the COVID pandemic was manipulated by the government to better control and track people.” Among those who identified as nonreligious, one-fifth (20%) agreed. More than twice that number (42%) of religious participants believed the government manipulated the pandemic to exercise control.
Regarding voting patterns, 8% of those who voted for Vice President Kamala Harris believed COVID was manipulated by the government, compared with 68% of Trump voters.
When asked about the environment, 27% of all survey participants said climate change is a hoax—including 15% of nonreligious respondents and 36% of religious respondents. Only 5% of Harris voters said climate change is a hoax, compared with 59% of Trump voters who hold the same belief.
On the “Great Replacement Theory,” the conspiracy that Democrats are trying to replace white Americans with immigrants and people of color,” almost a quarter (23%) of all respondents agreed. Only 11% of nonreligious respondents held this view, while almost three times as many religious respondents (32%) did.
Very few Harris voters (3%) believe in the Great Replacement Theory. More than half (53%) of Trump voters believe in that conspiracy.
More than one-fifth of all respondents (22%) agreed with the statement that “Democrats are involved in elite sex-trafficking rings.” Among nonreligious respondents, 14% held this belief, compared with 28% of religious respondents. Only 6% of Harris voters agreed, while 47% of Trump voters held the belief.
These results are part of the seventh wave of findings from the Baylor Religion Survey, a longitudinal study conducted in the month after the 2024 election. The study also measured beliefs about magic, the separation of church and state, abortion, and trust in institutions. All Wave 7 results of the survey can be found here.
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