Polling data for the 2020 U.S. presidential election has been criticized for being significantly off target again after underestimating support for President Donald Trump four years ago.
However, pollsters were much more accurate in previewing how white Christians would vote.
The 2020 election saw evangelical Christians support Trump at levels comparable to four years ago.
In 2016, 81% of white evangelical / born-again Christians who went to the polls in that election cast their votes for Trump, while 60% of white Catholics and 58% of all Protestants / other Christians did so.
This year, analysis by The New York Times of data from early exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool found that 76% of white evangelical Christians / white born-again Christians voted for the president.
Surveys and data analysis by Fox News found that 61% of all Protestants and 50% of all Catholics voted for Trump.
A methodology statement at the top of its 2020 poll analysis explains that Fox’s data is “based on surveys of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago with voting results from The Associated Press.”
White Christian support was higher than the overall numbers for Protestants and Catholics, according to Fox News, with 81% of white evangelical Christians / white born-again Christians voting for the president, compared to 70% of white Protestants / other Christians and 57% of white Catholics.
By comparison, a Pew Research Center poll published in mid-October found that 78% of white evangelical Protestants planned to vote for Trump, compared to 52% of white Catholics. Overall, 54% of all Protestants and 44% of all Catholics who were respondents said they planned to vote for the president.
Support for Trump in 2020 increased as the frequency of voters attending religious services increased, the Fox News analysis found.
Among voters who never attend such services, 63% voted for Joe Biden, while 52% of those who attend a few times a year or less supported the Democrat candidate.
When attendance increased to once a month or more, majority support shifted to Trump: about once a month (54% voted for Trump), a few times a month (54%) and once a week or more (61%).
Managing editor for news and opinion at Good Faith Media.
