Current trends indicate that global temperatures will far exceed the target of 1.5 degrees Celsius established in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, according to a United Nations Environment Programme report published in late October.

By 2100, the report expects the world to reach a temperature somewhere between 2.4 and 2.8 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Temperature increases will continue after 2100, as net-zero emissions won’t be achieved by that time based on current trends.

Based on current emission reduction pledges and progress in fulfilling these commitments, there are no pathways to keep the temperature increase at or below 1.5 degrees Celsius without increased reductions.

“To get on track to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, we would need to cut 45 percent off current greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. For 2°C, we would need to cut 30 percent,” Inger Andersen, executive director or UNEP, explained in the report’s forward.

The current nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, are insufficient to reach either of these targets, as they would only reduce emissions by a maximum of 10% if all commitments were fulfilled. However, most nations are not on track to meet their current NDCs.

“Incremental change is no longer an option: broad-based economy-wide transformations are required to avoid closing the window of opportunity to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C,” the report said. “Global warming levels only get close to the Paris Agreement temperature goal if full implementation of the highly uncertain net-zero pledges is assumed.”

The full report is available here.

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